Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Another Front Headed for the Gulf/Caribbean

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Updated: 10/31/2013 7:24 am
A cold front is stretched out across the Central Atlantic.  Waves of low pressure are moving along the front but there will be no tropical development.

Another strong mid latitude weather system is moving across the U.S. & will push a cold front through the First Coast by midday Sat. then on through the Gulf & into the Northern Caribbean.

Weak tropical waves are moving west/NW through the Caribbean. Nothing significant & no short term development is expected.  Still believe the Caribbean is an area to watch in the long run.

The Gulf is void of much cloud cover let alone any tropical activity.  Convection over the South & moving into the Gulf Coast area is associated with the next cold front (Sat.) for the First Coast.

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled as the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.  We still will see a trough move into the Eastern U.S. this weekend, but it will be progressive with the mean trough re-establishing over the Western U.S. next week.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov. but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.

Global tropical activity... typhoon "Krosa" is in the W. Pacific & will move across the extreme Northern Phillipines then westward into or near Vietnam in the long term.

Two tropical-related stories:

(1) African dust & its effects on the environment -- click ** here ** - courtesy "Earth Gauge". Though some scientists attribute this season's meager hurricane productivity to African dust, I beg to differ. If "all things" are equal, tropical waves will simply be "dampened" while in the vicinity of large dust clouds but then develop once (if) in a more favorable environment (such as the hyperactive 2005 season). I personally believe persistent, widespread & strong mid & upper leve shear was more responsible for the east of the season.

(2) It would appear this hurricane season will go down as the quietest in 45 years with several records or near records:

** first time in 45 years that a hurricane no stronger than a Cat. 1 has occurred....fewest number of hurricanes since 1982....

** first season since 1994 without a Cat. 3+ storm...

** the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) was the weakest since the mid 1960s). 

Click ** here ** for the full read from the "Insurance Journal".

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