The old frontal boundary/trough from the weekend stretches from the Central Atlantic to Central Fl. into the Gulf. We'll have to watch for any persistent cluster of t'storms that might eventually evolve into low pressure but nothing at the moment other than some t'storms near the Bahamas & Upper Keys associated with a mid/upper level low. This system will drift north but no
tropical development will likely occur. This system will enhance t'storms for the First Coast by Fri. into the weekend.
The Gulf is very quiet with little even in the way of clouds....
The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) has been gradually shrinking over the E. Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.
Most forecast models continue to point to tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic next week. The 2nd map below shows precipitable water (moisture), & I've placed tropical waves or possible tropical cyclones on this map as well. This is the GFS forecast for Fri., Sept. 6th. The GFS model has generally been showing recurvature -- at least with the initial development keeping everything well east of the U.S. This stands to reason given the relatively persistent upper troughing the last few weeks over or near the Eastern U.S. The European model has also been showing tropical development next week but has been less intense with individual systems.
Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 40 knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 30-40+ knots over the Central Atlantic. Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.
The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is generally steady but still lacks much organization or -- for that matter -- strong convection. While no significant development is likely in the short term, this is an area that could -- & should -- become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.