Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Cold Front to Push Deep into Subtropics

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Updated: 10/18/2013 7:14 am

There are a few disturbances & tropical waves across the Central & South Atlantic.  There is no organization & no development is anticipated through the weekend.

A very quiet -- hardly even any cloud cover -- Gulf of Mexico.  The band of clouds from Texas to the Carolina's delineates a cold front that will stall south of Jax by Sun. then move slowly north early next week before a strong upper level trough pushes the cold front far to the south by the middle of next week.  The cold front should sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean where it'll finally stall.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month.

A series of cold fronts have been through the far E. Atlantic - yet another sure sign of autumn.  One cold front has managed to push south of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.  The Cape Verde season is officially "closed" (long track deep tropical cyclones).  The fear of a season with potentially significant long track hurricanes originating in the deep Atlantic tropics simply never materialized.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  A new storm -- "Francisco" -- has formed & is now moving away from Guam.  The typhoon will move toward Japan through the middle of next week but weakening upon approach to the island.  We need to watch for potential tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models are showing little of the sort.  The GFS model has recently occasionally shown some possible development not too far from the Yucatan Peninsula.  Deep & strong upper level troughing is forecast to eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S., & this development might be key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be & where such a development might track.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.


"Francisco" (map courtesy Weather Underground):

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