Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Disorganized "Gabrielle"

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Updated: 9/05/2013 11:19 am
"Gabrielle" is struggling & has been downgraded to a depression in what was already a very borderline tropical storm.  There is still plenty of convection, & it's quite possible that the center is reforming near or even east of Puerto Rico.

"Gabrielle" has a window of about 1-2 days to strengthen as it moves north/northwest staying mainly east of the Bahamas.  Within a few days, the system will encounter very strong westerly shear & will likely weaken or even dissipate (that's if it can even survive marginal conditions the next couple days).

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida....

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

Scattered convection has increased over the Gulf of Mexico, & low pressure might be trying to develop over the Western/SW Gulf of Mexico.  Slow development is possible as the system moves west but will move into Mexico late Fri./early Sat. -- no impact on any of Fl....

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

Tropical waves continue to move off the coast of Africa but are less than impressive.  Models are showing more persistent/potentially significant development in the Central & Eastern Atlantic next week.

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