Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Disturbance Approaching the E. Caribbean

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Updated: 9/01/2013 6:07 pm
A tropical wave with a possible weak surface low is approaching the Eastern Caribbean.  Shear -- at the moment -- is weak but then increases to 30-40 knots over the Central & NE Caribbean.  This shear might be why forecast models are less than enthusiastic about any significant development.  In any case, the disturbance should continue to track W/NW.  It would seem that any substantive development would be delay until the system is past the shear axis across the Caribbean...if the wave can survive such a hostile environment.

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

The Gulf is very quiet with little even in the way of clouds save for some t'storm activity along the Gulf Coast in the vicinity of an old surface trough of low pressure....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues to gradually shrink over the Central Atlantic, but it's shear (see next paragraph & map) that's still largely prohibitive for much significant tropical development.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 20 knots over the Northern Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.

Nothing impressive coming off the coast of Africa.  The Cape Verde season is often getting into full swing this time of year.

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