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First Atlantic Hurricane of '13: "Humberto"

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Updated: 9/11/2013 10:00 am
"Gabrielle" weakens near Bermuda... "Humberto" becomes a hurricane in E. Atlantic... Wave moving into the Yucatan Peninsula... 

"Gabrielle" appears to be on life support.  The low level center is W/NW of Bermuda but convection is far removed to the east -- an indication of the persistent strong westerly shear that's been hammering "Gabrielle" for days.  It's questionable whether or not "Gabrielle" can survive the shear, but if it does the cyclone will slowly move N/NW then accelerate N/NE by late in the week/weekend as it becomes absorbed with a frontal system & by an upper level trough.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida.

"Humberto" has become the first hurricane in the Atlantic this season.  That's the latest hurricane to develop in the Atlantic Basin since 2002 (Sept. 9th). "Humberto" has turned sharply north but will turn sharply west later this week.  A full transit across the Atlantic is highly unlikely.  By late week, cooler sea surface temps + increasing shear should induce weakening.  However, most global forecast models maintain "Humberto" well into next week & some restrengthening will be possible if it survives the hostile environment over the weekend into early next week.  No impact on the First Coast or any of the U.S. as it stands right now.

An active tropical wave is over the Northwest Caribbean & moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Land interaction will delay any strengthening but once over the Bay of Campeche Thu. & especially Fri., organization is a distinct possibility.  Ultimately...the strength of this potential tropical cyclone will depend on how long the system can remain over the "bath" water of the far SW Gulf.  Virtually all conditions otherwise appear favorable for development.  Impacts could occur as far north as S. Texas late in the weekend/early next week.  

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so -- again -- no local impacts.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.  This dry air could eventually cause "Humberto" to weaken in addition to increasing westerly shear courtesy the upper level low that visible at about 30 degrees N hundreds of miles northwest of "Humberto".

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico (but will weaken over the W. Gulf as the wave moves into that area)... 20-30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa with some potential for gradual development over the E. Atlantic.  

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas.  Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 25th.

We reached the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season Tue., Sept. 10th.

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