Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Front Headed for the Gulf

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Updated: 9/22/2013 12:04 pm
Front Headed for the Gulf of Mexico.......

Low pressure has formed east/northeast of Bermuda over the Central Atlantic but is already moving swiftly north/northeast with the help of a strong upper level trough over the N. Atlantic.  Little chance for tropical or even subtropical development as the low stays out over the open Atlantic.

The satellite image below shows an early autumn cold front accompanied by showers & storms from the NW Atlantic to the Fl./Ga.border & into the Northern Gulf. This front will stall over the Gulf of Mexico & across N or Central Fl. the next few days.  Tropical moisture will flow north & east ahead of the front enhancing the heavy rain potential.  Low pressure might also form in the Northern Gulf along the front & move east/northeast as occasionally indicated by some forecast models.  The area to watch will most likely be the Central or Western Gulf.  None of the more typically reliable models are showing strong development, but it's something to keep an eye on.  

This set-up (front + tropical moisture) will likely bring some heavy rain to the First Coast the next few days.

Surface pressures -- overall -- remains quite low from the SW Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico, so I still look for possible eventual tropical development in one of these areas over the next 1-2 weeks.

What few tropical waves are coming off Africa are less than impressive & are battling some shear.  It's possible we're seeing an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned.

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