Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Front Into the Caribbean

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Updated: 10/26/2013 2:44 pm
A cold front is stretched out from the N. Atlantic to east of Bermuda to the SW Atlantic into Cuba & the extreme NW Caribbean.

There is quite a bit of unsettled weather -- a mix of tropical waves & weak low pressure -- across the Caribbean eastward across the Central Atlantic.  Pressures remain generally low, & I still believe the Caribbean is the area to watch over the next couple weeks.

The strong cold front that rolled across the First Coast is slowing as it approaches the Caribbean.  This front will be a focus for possible tropical development.

As I've been alluding to for more than a week.... sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

* "Francisco" has dissipated east of Japan.....

* "Lekima" was a major typhoon to the east of "Francisco" & will recurve farther to the east staying well east of Japan as the storm falls apart.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico is gradually weakening. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions will slowly improve as "Raymond" begins to move west away from Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- more frequently now -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing will eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.  However, the developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. next week possibly -- & likely -- leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting back to the Western &/or Central U.S. by Halloween & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean between Halloween & the 10th or so of Nov.

Global tropical acitivity (or lack thereof):

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast:


"Lekima":

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