Front Makes It to the Gulf Coast.......
Low pressure has formed in the NW Gulf of Mexico (see 4th image below). Satellite imagery shows little more than a swirl of low clouds but there should be at least some increase in convection during daytime heating. As an upper level disturbance approaches Tue./Wed., t'storm activity should increase, & the low will move east/northeast along the front. True tropical development seems unlikely but given the time of year, this is a situation to monitor through midweek.
For the First Coast.... as the low move across N. Fl./S. Ga., there will the potential for heavy rain late Tue. through Wed. night.
-- overall -- remains quite low from the SW Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico, so I still look for possible eventual tropical development in one of these areas over the next 1-2 weeks.
What few tropical waves are coming off Africa are less than impressive & are battling some shear. It's possible we've seen an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned. The early forecast concerns for a season with Cape Verde hurricanes will almost certainly go down as a "bust". Sea surface temps. have been plenty warm, but widespread significant shear for the majority of the last couple months managed to keep things in check. Dry mid & upper level air was a contributor, too, but I feel it was the shear that dictated things.