Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Hostile Atlantic Conditions Win Out

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Updated: 8/19/2013 8:54 am
An unseasonably quiet Atlantic Basin for mid August.....

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central Atlantic & has spread into the Caribbean. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too. There has been moistening over the Eastern Atlantic & some forecast models are indicating tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic during the last week or so of Aug.

Shear is strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 40 knots over the Central Atlantic....

What was pretty strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa has weakened due to interaction with an upper level trough.  Little significant development is likely.

MJO-No.... The MJO - Madden-Julian Oscialltion is getting ready to ramp up.  This phenomenon is a combination of atmospheric circulation and heavy rain/t'storm cluster that originate in the W. Pacific & then propage eastward.  When the MJO begins to work eastward (generally a 1-2 months cycle that is then followed by suppressed convection), it can be a signal of an uptick in tropical activity during the hurricane season.  Aftern taking its sweet time the last few weeks, it would appear the MJO is about to take off, & the GFS forecast model is indeed showing an uptick in deep tropical activity the last week or so of August that would likely continue into at least early Sept.  Stay tuned!  Click ** here ** to read more about the MJO including a definition & forecasts.

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