Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

"Ingrid" Moving Ashore

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Updated: 9/16/2013 5:40 am
"Ingrid" Headed for Mexico... "Humberto" Remnants Trying to Refire... 

"Ingrid" is making its move for coastal Mexico well south of S. Texas.  A sharper turn to the west -- or even west/southwest -- should occur later Mon. into Tue. insuring a hit that's well south of Texas.  Still....a few outer rain bands will move as far north as Brownsville through Mon. evening.

A number of oil wells have been -- or will be -- shut down for at least several days which could impact the price of oil for a couple of weeks.

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so no local impacts.

Model data below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:


"Humberto" has passed through some of the worst of the shear + is moving back over warmer sea surface temps.  Convection has been slowly increasing but is still primarily north & east of the center indicating shear is still evident.  Regeneration is indicated by virtually all forecast models over the next few days. Still...."Humberto" will stay over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S. as the tropical cyclone is eventually destined for the N. Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 40+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 40+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.  

Tropical waves are becoming less prominent moving west off Africa. In fact, given the satellite imagery + long range forecast models, one has to wonder if the Cape Verde season is essentially over(?!).

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas/W. Atlantic &/or possibly over the Gulf of Mexico.  The GFS model shows a disturbance developing near the Bahamas &/or Fl. Straits then moving northeast with another disturbance developing over the Central Atlantic as early as later this week.  The European model also indicates Central Atlantic development first then a broad trough or weak tropical disturbance developing over the SE Gulf then moving northeast.  Neither model -- at this time -- is particularly strong. Exact details this far our are -- of course -- almost impossible to predict, but I suspect there will be at least one storm, possibly two that will form.  Period of greatest concern appears to be between Sept. 20th & 30th.

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