Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

"Karen" Dissipates

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Updated: 10/06/2013 10:33 pm
"Karen" Becomes a Remnant Low....... 

FOR THE FIRST COAST: (our weather (forecast/effects) changes very little even though "Karen" dissipated.  A plume of tropical moisture spreading across the area + an approaching cold front will combine for rain & storms Mon.)

** given the forecast thinking/reasoning (as discussed below), local impacts remain -- generally -- pretty minor....as I've tried to articulate for the last 5-6 days.

** Rain & storms will increase Monday.

** still a very isolated threat for tornadoes Monday given the combination of Karen's remnants, a cold front, a strong upper level trough + some surface heating.

** some heavy rain but speed of the system should limit the overall amounts -- perhaps an average of a half inch to 1.5", locally 2"+ when combining Sun.-Mon.  There could be some short-lived street flooding & ponding of water. 

** breezy through Mon. but not overly strong as winds average 15-20 mph.  Stronger t'storms may produce winds nearing 50 or even 60 mph but only in isolated cases.

Infrared satellite below still shows a persistent cluster of t'storms over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Convection from Texas to the Tennessee Valley is associated with the approaching cold front & strong upper level trough.

The visible satellite below...a slight low level cloud swirl was detectable Sun. night just south/southeast of New Orleans.

Satellite imagery shows the strongest convection well east of what's left of "Karen". An upper level disturbance is still discernible & is helping to ignite the strong convection over the NE Gulf.

Ultimately.....the dissipation of "Karen" does not change the so-called sensible weather for the First Coast through Mon. night: on-&-off showers & storms with heavy rain at times + some risk of a severe storm, especially Mon.  What I termed much of the past week as "fringe effects" from the storm for the First Coast will still be valid thanks to the tropical moisture, upper level disturbance/trough & cold front moving into the area.

The image below shows the very strong shear -- 70+ knots(!) -- spreading into the Northern Gulf in association with the upper level trough.  This shear should insure no regeneration of "Karen".

Water vapor satellite images below showing the vast area of very dry air that persists over the Central/Western Gulf which hampered "Karen" the last several days:

Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

3-day total rainfall forecast:

The satellite imagery below shows the mature upper level storm system over the Central U.S. that's driving the cold front eastward (note t'storms north-south along the front).

An upper level low is east of the Bahamas.  Little or no tropical development is likely. 

Tropical waves continue to decrease -- in number --  as they move off the coast of Africa. A fairly healthy wave is S/SW of the Cape Verde Islands.  While there is some short term potential, the system will soon encounter dry air + shear & has little chance to advance very far west across the Atlantic.

There are some indications of long term development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic in roughly 10 days to 2 weeks.

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