Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Large Upper Low Over Central Atlantic

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Updated: 11/02/2013 9:35 am
The last month of the "official" hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin....

A cold front
is pushing south & east & -- as is typical later in the fall -- will penetrate a little farther south [than past fronts] into the Caribbean before becoming stationary next week.

A large upper low is over the Central Atlantic.  No tropical development is likely.

A large area of disturbed weather is moving west from the Eastern Atlantic hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Slow development is not out of the question in the long term.

The strong cold front is producing persistent but linear convection across the Gulf.

The gray circular-like clouds on the satellite below are indicative of a dry, cool & stable atmosphere that's now pushing well south over the Central Atlantic (autumn is here!).

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled as the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.  The deep upper trough moving into the Eastern U.S. this weekend (responsible for the nice, soaking rain for the First Coast early Sat.) will be progressive with the mean trough becoming re-established over the Western U.S. next week.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov. but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.  A series of strong surface high pressures will move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean.

In the E. Pacific.... a tropical depression will catch the southern edge of the Baja of California then move into Mexico.  The system will likely become a tropical storm before land interaction & before the storm starts to feel the effects of increasing shear.

Global tropical activity... typhoon "Krosa" is in the W. Pacific & has moved across the extreme Northern Phillipines & will bend southwest into Vietnam in the coming days as the storm weakens.

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