Last advisory on "Melissa"....
became extratropical upon scooting by the Northern/Northwest Azores. The system will slow, turn more southeast & gradually weaken.
Meanwhile… a large winter-like ocean cyclone is over the NW Atlantic east of Greenland.
Convection is active along a strong cold front moving into the Southern U.S. This front will plow into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend… stall… then become re-energized & move north by early in the upcoming week as a strong upper level trough approaches… generates cyclogenesis -- nontropical -- over the far Northern Gulf…. this low will then move east/northeast across the Southeast U.S. through midweek.
Colorado State -- Dr. Bill Gray & Dr. Phil Klotzbach -- has released a detailed (as usual) summary of the '13 hurricane season. Admitting to a forecast that was much too high ["quietest" in 20 years], CSU put most of the blame on the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which was weak & helped increase wind shear & especially to keep dry mid & upper level air in place over the deep tropics & also allows for cold advection from the north (something I noticed was a mainstay for much of the season keeping relative stability over the E/SE Atlantic). Click ** here ** to read the in-depth discussion -- excellent read for those that want to get into the "nerdy" aspect of seasonal trends(!). "Special characteristics" identified in the summary:
• Thirteen named storms occurred during 2013. This is the most named storms to occur in a year with two or fewer hurricanes in the historical record. The 1931 hurricane season had thirteen named storms but only three hurricanes.
• 35.75 named storm days (NSD) occurred during 2013. This is the fewest NSD since 2009 (30 NSD).
• Two hurricanes formed in 2013. This is the fewest hurricanes since 1982 - when two hurricanes also formed.
• No major hurricanes formed in 2013. The last year with no major hurricane formations was 1994.
• ACE in 2013 was only 30 units. This is the lowest ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season since 1983 (17 ACE).
• No major hurricanes made US landfall in 2013. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005), so the US has now gone eight years without a major hurricane landfall. Since 1878 when relatively reliable landfall data became available, the US has never had an eight-year period without a major hurricane landfall.
• The maximum intensity reached by any TC this year was 75 knots (Humberto and Ingrid). This is the weakest maximum intensity achieved by the most intense TC of a season since 1968 (Gladys - 75 knots).
• Humberto reached hurricane strength early on September 11. It became the second latest forming first hurricane of the year, developing into a hurricane just hours before the previous record latest forming first hurricane of the year (Gustav - 2002)
• Two TCs formed in the Main Development Region (south of 23.5°N, east of 75°W) prior to 1 August. The last year with two TCs forming in this region prior to 1 August was 2005. The median ACE of the 10 years with two TCs in the MDR prior to 1 August was 174 ACE units. The 2013 season clearly defied many of the typical pre-season climate signals.
"Notice of Forecast Suspension" (p. 3 of report):
The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past thirty years. These predictions have served as a valuable information tool for insurance interests, emergency managers and coastal residents alike. While these forecasts were largely developed utilizing funding from various government agencies, recent attempts at obtaining continued grant funding have been unsuccessful. Funding from several insurance companies enabled the continuation of these forecasts in recent years. However, the forecast team has recently lost some of its financial support from industry. Consequently, new sources of revenue are required to keep the forecast going. Interested parties are invited to contact Phil Klotzbach directly via email at email@example.com for additional discussion of potential sponsorship opportunities.
The Tropical Meteorology Project will suspend issuing seasonal forecasts beginning in April 2014, unless additional funding for the forecasts is forthcoming. The CSU forecast team is currently seeking partnerships with the private sector in order to continue these predictions. Please see the sponsorship brochure if you are interested in supporting the forecast team.