Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Last Advisory on T.D. #8

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Updated: 9/07/2013 10:43 am
Last advisory on T.D. #8.... "Gabrielle" moving east of Bahamas....

The remnants of "Gabrielle" continue to only slowly move north & are now north of Hispaniola & Puerto Rico & well east of the Bahamas.  There's the potential for some slow reorganization as the system moves north/northeast.  There is some possibility that the remnants could be left behind by the trough moving into the NW Atlantic but few of the global forecast models show much organization in such a scenario.  On the other hand...an acceleration to the north/northeast in advance of the trough + interaction with a cold front could hasten intensification but would well out over the Atlantic.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida....

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

There is still a lot of convection over the far W. Gulf of Mexico that might be loosely tied to what was t.d. #8.  No signs of organization, but this area + the Caribbean might be an area to watch over the next couple weeks.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20-30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

Tropical waves are moving off the coast of Africa but are less than impressive.  Models are showing more persistent/potentially significant development in the Central & Eastern Atlantic during the next week, but it's questionable as to whether or not any of the systems can make it west across the Atlantic given the weather pattern that appears to be setting up over the Atlantic -- a series of upper level troughs.

In the E. Pacific....weakening "Lorena" is near the Baja of California producing pockets of heavy rain.

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