Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

"Lorenzo" Over the Open Atlantic

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Updated: 10/22/2013 7:35 am
Tropical storm "Lorenzo" is already under the influence of prevailing westerlies & an approaching upper level trough resulting in:
(1) an acceleration east/northeast over the open Atlantic.....

(2) westerly shear that is pushing virtually all of the convection to the east/northeast of the center.

So "Lorenzo" was at its peak just about at its inception Mon.  In fact, according to satellite imagery, "Lorenzo" was probably a moderately strong tropical storm for a time.  The storm will continue to accelerate to the east/northeast harmlessly over the Atlantic becoming a remnant low by late week.

A cold front is moving into the Gulf & SE U.S.  The front will eventually sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean this week where it'll finally stall by the weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month over the Caribbean.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  

"Francisco" will recurve near Japan this week as the storm weakens.  Other tropical cyclones will be developing in the W. Pacific over the coming days (see the 2nd image below).

In addition, "Raymond" has formed in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico becoming a hurricane after a rapid intensification cycle Sunday-Sun. night.  A hurricane WATCH & tropical storm WARNING remains in effect for parts of the Pacific coast of Mexico including Acapulco where heavy rain & flooding have already occurred.  A combination of shear & upwelling will induce weakening the next few days.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing is forecast to eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.

The W. Pacific is full of activity & "invest" areas:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the Mexico coast:


"Francisco":

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