Front Stalls Over the N. Gulf... Low Pressure Forecast to Develop W. Atlantic.......
Weak low pressure remains over the NW Gulf of Mexico (see 4th image below). Satellite imagery shows little more than a swirl of low clouds but there should be at least some increase in convection during daytime heating. As an upper level disturbance moves into the Eastern U.S. Wed., t'storm activity should increase, & the low will move east/northeast along the front. Tropical development seems unlikely in the short term.
However, the European model has thrown a bit of a wrench in the longer term forecast as the model is showing low pressure intensifying off the Carolina coast & northeast of Jacksonville before moving north then northwest into the Mid Atlantic near Chesapeake Bay late in the week into the weekend. This development would appear to be subtropical in nature & is new from previous solutions from the same model.
The American GFS model, on the other hand, shows much weaker low pressure developing over the W. Atlantic that then continues east/northeast out over the open Atlantic.
I feel a little more confident in the GFS model for now given its consistency & because the stronger surface development was just introduced by the European vs. its earlier model runs.
Either way for the First Coast.... as the low move across N. Fl./S. Ga., there will the potential for heavy rain through Wed. night.
-- overall -- remain quite low from the SW Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico, so I still look for possible eventual tropical development in one of these areas over the next 1-2 weeks.
What few tropical waves are coming off Africa are less than impressive & are battling some shear. It's possible we've seen an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned. The early forecast concerns for a season with Cape Verde hurricanes will almost certainly go down as a "bust". Sea surface temps. have been plenty warm, but widespread significant shear for the majority of the last couple months managed to keep things in check. Dry mid & upper level air was a contributor, too, but I feel it was the shear that generally dictated things.