An area of "disturbed weather"
remains over the far SE Gulf of Mexico & NW Caribbean. The associated upper level disturbance is moving across Fl. today but with no surface development. A weak area of surface low pressure looks like it will remain over the SE Gulf & far NW Caribbean, & this might be something to monitor over at least the next several days.
A rather large tropical wave
(see 4th satellite image below) is headed for the far SE Caribbean but at a very far south latitude so there may some interaction with the coast of S. America. If this wave gets a little farther north -- which it is likely to do -- then this wave could try to develop in the long run over or near the Caribbean.
Another cold front has moved through the Gulf & into the NW Caribbean.
The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period. This kind of pattern would have the potential to allow for tropical development near the Caribbean that would have a tendency -- if something developed -- to move W/NW then more northward with time. But nothing of the sort expected anytime soon. Another transient but strong upper level trough will move into the NE U.S. this week followed by another sharp trough by the middle of next week. Meanwhile…storminess moving eastward from the Pacific will continue so the persistent troughing will still -- overall -- remain over the Western U.S.
Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean. I still believe the potential is there for a late season storm but, boy, there's nothing to hang one's hat on for the moment other than the "disturbed" areas or waves I mentioned at the top. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic. This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development. Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.
Global tropical activity… Powerful & massive "Haiyan" over the W. Pacific & is just going to hammer the Central Philippines Thursday-Friday as a Cat. 5 super typhoon!
It looks like "Haiyan" will enter the Philippines near Butuan & south of Calbayon passing approximately 125 miles (200 km) to the south of Manila upon its exit from the islands.