Tropical moisture from "Chantal" Remnants + Weak Front to Bring Heavy Rain to the First Coast....
The remnants of "Chantal" continue to produce showers & storms over the Bahamas south to Cuba & Jamaica but with no sign of any reorganization. Swift west to southwest shear from an upper level trough digging into the SE U.S. should ensure that the wave has little chance for sustained redevelopment. What's left of the storm -- mainly tropical moisture -- will stream north & northwest & enhance the heavy rain threat for the First Coast & much of Fl./Ga. through the weekend. The chances for regeneration remain very low.
Forecast model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
The ribbon of moisture on the water vapor image below from Texas to the Northern Gulf then arching to Fl. & up the U.S. east coast represents an unseasonably strong -- & far to the south -- upper level trough. Though not indicated by forecast models, we'll have to watch this trough for possible surface development in the Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary.
The strong wave that came off the African coast early this week is in the Central Atlantic following a similar path to "Chantal" but has slowed & is feeling the sobering effects of some of the shear that so worked over "Chantal". There is at least some chance for this wave to develop in the long run as it moves west then west/northwest & gains some latitude but a considerable amount of stable & dry mid & upper level air is ahead of it. Still...the wave carries with it a good deal of moisture & -- though lacking much convection at the moment -- remains a wave to watch next week.