The Atlantic Basin --
remains void of any tropical activity -- full of dry air & high shear. Disorganized t'storm activity continues to pop near the Fl. Straits & Eastern/SE Gulf due to an upper level low that is moving west. No surface development is expected.Long range global forecast models continue to point to the far W. Caribbean, far SW Gulf of Mexico as an area with the potential for development next week. Nothing to really hang your hat on -- for the moment -- other than some persistent t'storm activity that is just off the Central American coast.
A huge area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central & SW Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.
Shear is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 30 knots over the W. Atlantic (but diminishing overall)....& 30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico....
Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa. Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound. Dry air is very evident on the IR satellite below - note the patchy light gray colored clouds which are stratocumulus clouds - indicative of a stable air mass. Some long range development is possible -- & indicated by some forecast models -- toward the middle &/or end of Aug. No surprise given the time of year.
The Pacific, on the other hand, is a far busier basin (& could be a hint of an uptick in Atlantic activity later this month). "Henriette" will move south of Hawaii this weekend but will be weakening....a couple of other disturbances in the E. Pacific have the potential for slow development.