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Nontropical Low Dropping South

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Updated: 10/13/2013 10:48 am
Non-tropical Low Dropping South in the W. Atlantic... Sheared Wave Central Atlantic... Typhoons in W. Pacific 

A non-tropical low is -- as expected -- dropping south through the far Western Atlantic east of the Carolina's. This low will sit & spin over the W. Atlantic & slowly turn more southeast but will be a close enough to bring a return of onshore flow to the First Coast by late Sun./Mon. with a few coastal/near coast showers + cooler temps.  No tropical development of this system is expected. 

The surface map below just catches the southern edge of the low in the W. Atlantic surface low is east of Va./N. Carolina.

A persistent tropical wave has moved into the Central Atlantic but is under the effects of shear.  Any development will be slow as the wave turns more north.  Another wave has just come off the coast of Africa but should face a similar fate to its predecessor. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  

* "Phailin" & slammed ashore in India Sat.

* A second -- "Nari" -- is moving into Vietnam. 

* Yet another typhoon -- "Wipha" -- will be farther to the east with a re-curvature just east of Japan in the long run. 

These developments -- along with an increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific --  could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).  Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin.  Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch, but it's also getting late in the season.  Having said that....sea surface temps. are still plenty warm -- well into the 80s.



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