Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Ocean Storm Slowly Taking Shape

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Updated: 9/26/2013 7:41 am
Ocean storm to Develop W. Atlantic.......

A series of low pressure systems are moving along a stalled front stretched out across the Northern Gulf, N. Fl. & the SW Atlantic.

A single, strengthening low pressure is slowly developing east of Jacksonville over the W. Atlantic.  The ocean storm will intensify as it moves north not too far offshore from the east coast of the U.S. before turning more northeast.  

This ocean storm could try to acquire subtropical characteristics initially before transitioning to extratropical over the NW Atlantic.

For the First Coast.... this will be a classic "local" Nor'easter:

* gusty northeast winds averaging 15-25 mph but with gusts 30+ mph

* scattered mostly brief showers, especially closer to the coast

* rough seas & surf with dangerous rip currents

* the "local" Nor'easter will take hold by Fri....peak Sat....& slowly diminish Sun. & especially Mon.

Wavewatch III from NOAA below nicely shows the building seas through Sat as the strong low develops over the W. Atlantic.  Click ** here ** to see the loop.

Surface pressures -- overall -- remain quite low from the SW Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico which could favor tropical development over the next 1-2 weeks.  The satellite imagery above shows a disturbance in the far Southern Caribbean.  Proximity to land should limit development in the short term, but this is an area to watch.  Meanwhile....hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles, there is a large area of "disturbed" weather.  This disorganized convection will move west then more north in time.  Low pressure could eventually evolve but would probably turn rather sharply north in the long term.

Much drier air is advecting southward into the Gulf of Mexico clearing skies & leaving some beautiful weekend weather for areas along, in & near the Gulf.

Very little activity (waves) of consequence are in the E. Atlantic or moving off Africa.

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