Flood Warning expires at 10:03 PM on 4/23, issued at 10:03 PM Fort White, FL | Lake City, FL | Lulu, FL

Remnants of "Karen" Over NE Gulf

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Updated: 10/07/2013 7:51 am
"Karen" Remnants in the NE Gulf....... 

FOR THE FIRST COAST: (our weather (forecast/effects) changes very little even though "Karen" dissipated.  A plume of tropical moisture spreading across the area + an approaching cold front will combine for rain & storms into Mon. night)

** given the forecast thinking/reasoning (as discussed below), local impacts remain -- generally -- pretty minor....as I've tried to articulate for the last 6-7 days.

** Rain & storms will increase through Mon. evening.

** still a very isolated threat for tornadoes Monday given the combination of Karen's remnants, a cold front, a strong upper level trough + some surface heating.

** some heavy rain but speed of the system should limit the overall amounts -- perhaps an average of a half inch to 1.5", locally 2"+ when combining Sun.-Mon.  There could be some short-lived street flooding & ponding of water. 

** breezy through Mon. but not overly strong as winds average 10-20 mph.  Stronger t'storms may produce winds nearing 50 or even 60 mph but only in isolated cases.

Infrared satellite below still shows a persistent cluster of t'storms over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Convection to the north & west across the SE U.S. is the approaching cold front.

Satellite imagery shows the strongest convection in association with what's left of "Karen". An upper level disturbance is still discernible & is helping to ignite the strong convection over the NE Gulf.

Ultimately.....the dissipation of "Karen" does not change the so-called sensible weather for the First Coast through Mon. night: on-&-off showers & storms with heavy rain at times + some risk of a severe storm, especially Mon.  What I termed much of the past week as "fringe effects" from the storm for the First Coast will still be valid thanks to the tropical moisture, upper level disturbance/trough & cold front moving into the area.

The image below shows the very strong shear -- 70+ knots(!) -- spreading into the Northern Gulf in association with the upper level trough.  This shear should insure no regeneration of "Karen".

Water vapor satellite images below showing the vast area of very dry air that persists over the Central/Western Gulf which hampered "Karen" the last several days:

Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

3-day total rainfall forecast:

The satellite imagery below shows the mature upper level storm system moving into the Northeast U.S. that's driving the cold front eastward (note t'storms north-south along the front).

An upper level low is hundreds of miles east of the Bahamas with quite a bit of t'storm activity.  Little or no tropical development is likely. 

A pair of tropical waves have moved off the coast of Africa in the far E. Atlantic.  Some short term development of wave #1 will be possible before turning more north & encountering marginal conditions for development.  

Wave #2 will move west & has some potential for gradual development.

There are some indications of long term development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic in roughly 10 days to 2 weeks or so.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  One has already made landfall & is dissipating over China.... a second quite strong typhoon "Danas" is in the NW Pacific & will curve north then northeast to near & just northwest of Japan & not far from Korea.  This development could be a clue that a tropical cyclone will be in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).

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