"Ingrid" Strengthening... "Humberto" Weakening...
"Ingrid" is slowly strengthening in the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The question now becomes one of how long the storm can stay over water which will dictate ultimate intensity. There's the potential for pretty fast intensification over the far Western/SW Gulf as weak to moderate southwesterly shear relaxes by late in the weekend/early in the week (predicated on "Ingrid" staying over the "bath water". Primary impacts will be over Eastern Mexico but some moisture could get as far north as far Southern Texas early in the week.
An increasingly stout upper level ridge of high pressure developing from Texas eastward along & just north of the Gulf Coast will insure an eventual turn to the west taking "Ingrid" inland over coastal Mexico anywhere from Sun. night to Mon.
This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so no local impacts.
Model data below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
"Gabrielle": last advisory was issued late Fri.
"Humberto" has quickly weakened as shear & dry air hammers away at the storm. There's nothing left but a swirl of low level clouds which is a decay from a full blown hurricane less than 48 hours earlier. Forecast models are insistent on restrengthening which is possible from the early to middle part of the week. Still...."Humberto" will stay over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S. as the tropical cyclone is eventually destined for the N. Atlantic.
Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.
Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa though the frequency is lessening (typical in mid Sept.). On the last satellite image below, one can see the frontal system moving into NW Africa that caused the initial sharp turn north by "Humberto".
Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic. Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas/W. Atlantic &/or possibly over the Gulf of Mexico. Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 28th.