Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

"Sonia" Hits Mexico

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Updated: 11/04/2013 8:27 am
An area of "disturbed weather" remains in the vicinity of Cuba, Hispaniola & Puerto Rico.  There is no indication of organization & there's likely to be little development through at least the next several days.  Very heavy rain will plague the Northern Lesser & Greater Antilles through the week.

Another cold front is moving through the middle of the U.S. with the southern extension of the front visible on the IR satellite photograph below extending across Texas into Mexico.  Some tropical moisture from "Sonia" will spread along & ahead of the front leading to enhanced rainfall for Texas & nearby areas.

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period.  The deep upper trough moving into the Eastern U.S. this weekend/early in the week (responsible for the nice, soaking rain for the First Coast early Sat.) is already lifting out to the northeast as a large trough becomes re-established over the Western/Central U.S.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean within the next few weeks but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.  A series of strong surface high pressures will move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.

In the E. Pacific.... tropical storm "Sonia" moved ashore on the Pacific upper Mexico coast early Mon. & is rapidly weakening over the mountainous terrain of Northern Mexico.

Global tropical activity... "Haiyan" is intensifying over the W. Pacific & could affect the Phillipines later this week.

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