Stormy Gulf.....Upper Level Lows East of Bahamas... E. Pacific More Active
Thunderstorms remain active but show linear processes across the Gulf as moisture streams northward on the east flank of an upper level trough across the U.S. There is weak surface low pressure approaching the W. Fl. Panhandle but there will otherwise be no tropical development with this activity.
There is some potential for some slow development in the far W. or SW Gulf of Mexico as a tropical wave moves from near the Yucatan Peninsula W/NW. This wave will be left behind as the upper level trough across the U.S. weakens & lifts to the north.
The 2nd (IR sat), 3rd (water vapor) & 4th (IR/Vis) images below show a pair of upper level features (low pressure). Just east of the Bahamas is the combination of a weak tropical wave & upper low. This system will start to move the west but there are no indications of surface development & none is expected.
Meanwhile...a 2nd trough continues to "pinch off" in the Central Atlantic & will become detached from a large upper low then speed west this weekend/early next week underneath a strong upper level & surface high pressure. This so-called TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough - will have a cold core at first at least & move to the west reaching Fl. Mon. night-Tue. By this time, the upper trough looks like it's core temp. will be more neutral. In any case....surface development is not indicated by forecast models & is not likely to occur as the system will be fast moving & in a pretty high shear environment. Subsidence on the west side of the TUTT will limit thunderstorms over the First Coast -- & much of Fl. -- Sun.-Mon. But on the east side of the trough, the air will be more unstable accompanied by an increase in vertical velocities (lift) which should increase t'storms Tue.-Wed. across the local area. Penn State's College of Earth & Mineral Sciences offers a very detailed discussion of TUTT's - click ** here
In the E. Pacific, "Dalila" is quickly dwindling...
But a strong tropical wave & area of disturbed weather that's developed a surface low is just off the south coast of Mexico & W/NW of Central America S/SE of Acapulco & should become a tropical storm soon.