Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Struggling "Dorian" Still Speeding West

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Updated: 7/27/2013 5:44 am
"Dorian" Struggling....

has moved into the very dry mid & upper level air (5th image below) & seems to be losing the battle.  There was a flare up of convection overnight, but the system is obviously poorly organized as it speeds west at some 20 mph.  
Moisture does/will increase upon approach to the Caribbean & SW Atlantic but shear increases even more at that point (early to mid week) which should keep "Dorian" weak if it hasn't already dissipated.  A weaker, more shallow system argues for more of a westward movement vs. a turn north or northwest as indicated by the forecast model spaghetti plots.

So....at this point....few if any impacts -- at least of much consequence -- can be expected for the First Coast (or any of Fl.) as what's left of "Dorian" moves south of the First Coast.

Tropical waves moving west off the coast of Africa are showing little organization with few concerns for at least the next week as it appears now.

Forecast models plot below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District (excellent agreement into next week)....

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