Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

T.D. #10 Hovering Over Far SW Gulf of Mexico

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Updated: 9/13/2013 10:04 am
T.D. #10 Slowly Organizing... "Gabrielle" & "Humberto" Weakening... 

Tropical depression #10 & seems destined to become "Ingrid" if the system can stay over water for any length of time. So the question now becomes one of how long the storm stays over water.  There's the potential for pretty fast intensification over the far Western/SW Gulf as weak to moderate southwesterly shear relaxes over the weekend.  Primary impacts will from Eastern Mexico to possibly as far north as far Southern Texas this weekend into early next week.

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so no local impacts.

Model data below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

"Gabrielle" appears to be transitioning to an extratropical cyclone on satellite imagery but convection is pretty impressive.  A broad upper level trough remains over the U.S. east coast & will help insure that "Gabrielle" moves north & accelerates northeast over the NW Atlantic staying east of the U.S. but coming close to Newfoundland as the system becomes absorbed by a cold front moving into the NW Atlantic.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida.

"Humberto" has quickly weakened as shear & dry air hammers away at the storm.  If the storm can survive the hostile environment into early next week, there's the potential for restrengthening later next week.  Still...."Humberto" will stay over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S. as the tropical cyclone is eventually destined for the N. Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.  In fact, "Humberto" is approaching 60+ knots of shear over the E. Atlantic!

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa with some potential for gradual development over the E. & Central Atlantic.  The "Cape Verde season" typically starts to wind down within a few weeks.

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas/W. Atlantic as well as possibly over the Gulf of Mexico.  Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 28th.

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