Flood Warning expires at 9:30 AM on 4/24, issued at 9:30 AM Brunswick, GA | Jekyll Island, GA | Saint Simons Island, GA | Sea Island, GA

T.D. #7 Becomes "Gabrielle"

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Updated: 9/04/2013 10:57 pm
The tropical wave organized enough in the far NE Caribbean to become tropical depression #7 late Wed. & then tropical storm "Gabrielle".  Strong shear is still located north of the system, but the wave has been just far enough south to allow for some organization.

The nearly season-long upper level trough looks to remain intact near the U.S. east coast.  This feature should turn the cyclone more north in the long run as is indicated by most of the forecast models & the NHC track forecast.  On this track, "Gabrielle" will stay well east of Jacksonville & all of Florida with little impact on the local area except for a possible slight uptick in the easterly swell by late week into the weekend.

Another interesting feature is a disturbance -- that's been quite persistent -- northeast of t.d. #7.  It's not clear if this disturbance can become independent enough to develop nor is it clear that forecast models can -- at this time -- delineate between the two systems.

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

Scattered convection has increased over the Gulf of Mexico but there's no organization....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues to gradually shrink over the Central Atlantic, but it's shear (see next paragraph & map) that's still largely prohibitive for much significant tropical development.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

Tropical waves continue to move west off Africa & are looking a little more impressive.  Models are showing more persistent/potentially significant development in the Central & Eastern Atlantic by this weekend into next week.

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