Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

T'Storm Cluster NE Gulf

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Updated: 8/22/2013 11:36 am
T'storms NE Gulf...Weak Wave in Caribbean.....

A t'storm cluster has formed over the Northeast Gulf & will have to be watched for persistence.  Some forecast models to develop weak low pressure over the N/NE Gulf but then pretty quickly move it inland.  Tropical development seems unlikely but with a weak front nearby & an upper level trough to the north across the Eastern U.S., the cluster of storms is something to monitor.  

A weak tropical wave has had t'storms flare in its vicinity over the Western Caribbean.  Movement to the W/NW will continue & some slow development is possible before land interaction with Central America.

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remain over the Central Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too. In addition, a large upper level trough is over the W. Atlantic.  This trough is expected to slowly weaken & lift to the north but a piece of it could be left behind next week.  The result is some ridging should gradually develop + we'll have to watch the "pinched" off portion for maybe slow development. Some forecast models continue to point to tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic during the last few days of Aug. & especially into Sept.  The troughing (or possible reinforcement of the trough) or remaining "pinched" trough might play a role in any possible movement across the Atlantic....or lack thereof.

Shear has lessened over the Gulf of Mexico but is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 40 knots over the Central Atlantic where a large upper level trough is positively tilted north of the Greater Antilles....

The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is increasing but there is nothing impressive.  While no substantive development is likely in the short term, this is an area that should become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.

NASA has just started the Global Hawk hurricane research project which will continue through Sept. 20th.  Click ** here ** to follow Global Hawk missions....click ** here ** for general info.  Photo below courtesy NASA.

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