Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Tracking a Couple Tropical Waves

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Updated: 8/29/2013 11:21 am
We'll get through the month of Aug. with no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.  The average date of the first hurricane is Aug. 10th but by no means is this "dry spell" unprecedented.  25 times since 1851 the first Atlantic hurricane has been Sept. 1st or later.  As recently as 2001, the first Atlantic hurricane did not develop until Sept. 9th & was followed by 10 more named storms.

Right now... a lot of disorganized convection is over the Western Atlantic & Bahamas & is related to the leftovers of an upper level trough.  No signs of a surface low but low pressure is expected to develop over the NW Atlantic over the next several days.  Indications are that this low will not be tropical.

The Gulf is very quiet with little even in the way of clouds....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) has been gradually shrinking over the E. Caribbean & the Central Atlantic but has spread into parts of the Central Caribbean. 

Forecast models have generally backed off on consequential tropical development over the Central or Eastern Atlantic next week.  But there are several tropical waves that will move west & with positive velocity anomalies spreading into the Atlantic Basin, any & all waves will have to be monitored.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 30-40+ knots over the Central Atlantic & a whopping 50+ knots over the E. Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.

The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is generally steady but still lacks much organization or -- for that matter -- strong convection.  While no significant development is likely in the short term, this is an area that could -- & should -- become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.  

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