Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Tropical Depression #8 Forms

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Updated: 9/06/2013 4:11 pm
T.D. #8 will have a brief life.... "Gabrielle" remnants still under considerable shear....

The remnants of "Gabrielle" are slowly lifting north of the Caribbean.  Shear has had its way with the system but heavy rain will continue over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands & parts of the Dominican Republic into Fri. night.  The remnant low will get snatched up by an upper level trough late this weekend/next week & move north/northeast.  There's some chance for regeneration as the system moves into the Central Atlantic next week near & east/southeast of Bermuda but far to the east of the U.S.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida....

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

The NHC has gone ahead & upgraded the disturbance in the extreme W. Gulf of Mexico to tropical depression #8 (tell me they are not going to do whatever it takes to somehow get to the seasonal forecast!).  The system was moving inland over Mexico just about as -- or shortly after -- their "special advisory" was issued Fri. afternoon.  No strengthening since it's over land -- no impact on any of Fl.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20-30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

Tropical waves continue to march off the coast of Africa but are less than impressive.  Models are showing more persistent/potentially significant development in the Central & Eastern Atlantic next week, but it's questionable as to whether or not any of the systems can make it west across the Atlantic given the weather pattern that appears to be setting up over the Atlantic -- a series of upper level troughs.

In the E. Pacific....tropical storm "Lorena" is headed for the Baja of California & will make landfall Fri. night as a minimal tropical storm then weaken as the system drifts north/northwest.

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