Tropical Depression #11 in the Atlatic... Active Wave in the Caribbean.......
T.D. # 11 has formed far out in the Central Atlantic. A large trough of low pressure over the W. Atlantic will soon be reinforced & should pick up the #11 (possibly a tropical storm by then) & insure a northward then northeast turn & acceleration. This one stays far out over the open Atlantic.
Satellite imagery above shows an active tropical wave
in the Central/Southern Caribbean. For the moment, shear is strong over the Central Caribbean (see image below) but will subside during the upcoming week as the wave slowly moves into the NW Caribbean & SE Gulf of Mexico. This wave has the potential to slowly develop. Both the GFS & European forecast models "acknowledge" this wave but are showing little model run to run consistency. How sharp an eventual northward turn is (or is not) will come down to an upper level trough that will move into the Eastern U.S. late in the week. This remains a wave to watch with at least some potential for long term development.
Even without significant development, it appears tropical moisture will flow northward in association with the wave enhancing the heavy rain potential for the First Coast
late in the week into the weekend.
Model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
A low latitude tropical wave is east of the Caribbean & moving W/NW (see satellite image above below the forecast track for #11). If the wave can gain enough latitude, some slow development is possible though land interaction with S. America + strong shear could limit overall development.
A pretty strong tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa. Early indications are that this wave will turn north fairly soon & also encounter shear.