Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Tropical Moisture Surge Spreading Into/East of Fl.

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Updated: 7/13/2013 9:18 am
Tropical moisture from "Chantal" Remnants + Weak Front to Bring Heavy Rain to the First Coast....

The remnants of "Chantal" appear to have split into 2.  One area is the mid & upper level surge of moisture through the Bahamas & east of Fl. where t'storms continue to blossom but lack any staying power or -- more importantly -- any surface low.  This moisture will have a tendency to bend back to the west & northwest & will enhance the heavy rain set-up that's already established across the First Coast.  There will be no sustained tropical development with this feature.

A second area of thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean appears to match up with a piece of the low level wave that broke off & is moving west.  Again....little or no development expected.

An area to watch is the Central & Northern Gulf where a weak trough of low pressure & possibly weak surface front is situated.  The wave in the W. Caribbean might get pulled north or we could see a weak surface low develop along the front.  In such instances, slow tropical development would be possible but nothing is imminent.


The ribbon of moisture on the water vapor image below from Mexico through the Gulf then arching northeast into Fl. & up the U.S. east coast marks the unseasonably strong -- & far to the south -- upper level trough.

Waves coming off the coast of Africa are butting into some very dry mid & upper level air & are weakening at this point.  These waves might have some potential in the very long range but nothing to hang your hat on at this point.

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