Tropical storm "Sonia" Headed for Mexico

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Updated: 11/03/2013 8:41 am
An area of "disturbed weather" is widespread but very disorganized over the Central/E. Caribbean & far SW Atlantic including parts of the extreme SE Bahamas, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.  There are no signs of organization & none is expected... at least in the short term. Very heavy rain will plague the Lesser & Greater Antilles through early part of the week.

The strong cold front that brought soaking rains to the First Coast has forged through the Gulf & is moving into the NW Caribbean - fall has arrived!

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period.  The deep upper trough moving into the Eastern U.S. this weekend/early in the week (responsible for the nice, soaking rain for the First Coast early Sat.) is transitory with the mean trough becoming re-established over the Western U.S. over the next few days.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean within the next few weeks but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.  A series of strong surface high pressures will move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now.

In the E. Pacific.... tropical storm "Sonia" will give extreme southern Baja of California a glancing blow then move into Mexico Mon where a tropical storm WARNING is in effect.

Global tropical activity... typhoon "Krosa" is in the W. Pacific & has moved across the extreme Northern Phillipines & is bending sharply southwest into Vietnam but will be much weaker upon landfall.

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