Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Tropics Go Quiet After "Andrea"

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Updated: 6/09/2013 7:23 pm
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The tropics have gone quiet as "Andrea" has moved into the North & NW Atlantic.  No tropical development is likely anytime soon.

Now that the NHC has issued its last advisory on "Andrea", time to take a look at the forecasting of the season's first Atlantic tropical cyclone.

We first saw signs of possible tropical development in the first week of June as early as mid to late May.  I first posted about the potential in the "Buresh Blog" May 22nd (click here) sighting Vertical Velocity Anomalies + long range global model guidance.  I then reiterated this possibility at the beginning of the hurricane season on June 1st & in all subsequent posts.  On Sat. June 1st, I illustrated the difference between the GFS & European model -- see the maps at the bottom.  On Thu., May 30th, the European was too far west while the GFS was would end up being just about spot on.  The next day on May 31st both models adjusted east which put the European spot on while the GFS model was then  too far south.  It should be pointed out that the GFS did an excellent job of sniffing out the development as much as 2-3 weeks in advance!  After June 1st, the models did shift some but both ended up being quite accurate on the ultimate track & -- for the most part -- on intensity.  Some model runs did not develop the system enough, but could still find at least an open trough in the general area of concern.  In the 1-3 days leading up to landfall (late Thu., June 6th), the GFS was faster which ended up being the better forecast.  Both the European & GFS models were a little too west indicating a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) that was too high by as much as several inches.  Much of the reason for this can be attributed to the fast movement.  The heaviest rain generally only fell for about 12 hours.  A secondary contribution to the lower QPF was a dry slot that wrapped around the cyclone from the west.  This was something that could be forecast to some degree as the dry mid & upper level air was very evident on satellite imagery, so it became a matter of trying to time this part of the cyclone's development.  Rainfall generally averaged 1-5" with a few tornadoes.  2 EF-1 tornadoes occurred on the First Coast -- Mayport & Amelia Island/Fernandina Beach.  The storm came ashore late Thu., 06/06 on the Fl. Big Bend & continued northeast between Lake City & Macclenny to Folkston to near Savannah passing roughly 20-30 miles northwest of Downtown Jax between 10pm on the 6th & 2am on the 7th.  This is when winds were strongest across Jacksonville averaging sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph.

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