The Atlantic Basin --
remains void of any tropical activity -- full of dry air & high shear. Disorganized t'storm activity is occasionally popping near the Bahamas, S. Fl. & Cuba due to an upper level low that is moving west. No surface development is expected.A cluster of t'storms is occurring over the far SW Caribbean. The GFS forecast model has been showing the W. Caribbean might be a place to watch next week & perhaps this cluster of t'storms is something to monitor. Movement will be slow to the northwest.
A huge area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central & SW Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.
Shear is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin exceeding 30 knots(!) over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 20 knots over the SW Atlantic (but diminishing overall)....& 40+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico....
Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa. Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound. Dry air is very evident on the IR satellite below - note the patchy light gray colored clouds which are stratocumulus clouds - indicative of a stable air mass. Some long range development is possible -- & indicated by some forecast models -- over the next couple weeks.
The Pacific, on the other hand, is a far busier basin (& could be a hint of an uptick in Atlantic activity later this month). "Henriette" will move south of Hawaii this weekend but will be weakening....a couple of other disturbances in the E. Pacific have the potential for slow development.
NOAA has issued an update on its seasonal forecast for the rest of the hurricane season (through the end of Nov.). No significant changes -- just slightly lower #'s in what otherwise is still expected to be an active season ... despite the recent lull in tropical activity & still no hurricanes so far.
FORECAST:* 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), * including 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), * of which 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph) These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Click ** here
** to read the NOAA report.