Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Upper Low Over Central Atlantic

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Updated: 11/12/2013 7:27 am
An upper level low has developed in the Central Atlantic east/southeast of Bermuda.  No tropical development is likely though there is a good deal of convection.

The band of clouds from the NW Atlantic arching south then west through the U.S. on the satellite photo below is the leading edge of arctic cold front that will sweep into the W. Atlantic but its penetration to the south will quickly halt & not get much beyond the Fl. Straits before upper level southwest flow pushes the front north along with a surge of moisture.  We'll have to watch the front for any possible surface low that might try to develop.

The Caribbean is remarkably free of even any cloud cover -- nice sailing & cruising!

Lots of moisture streaming through the Gulf of Mexico with showers & a few t'storms but no surface development is evident nor is any development expected.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  The time for slow tropical development in the Caribbean is running out but still possible. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.

Global tropical activity finally quieter world-wide though a disturbed area is being monitored by Joint Typhoon Warning Center east of the Philippines & will likely bring at least heavy rain to the island … some of which could impact areas hard hit by "Haiyan" last week.

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