Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Watching NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico

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Updated: 8/13/2013 8:17 am
The Atlantic Basin -- remains void of much tropical activity -- full of dry air & high shear as a whole. 

Long range global forecast models continue to point to the far W. Caribbean, Southern or SW Gulf of Mexico as an area with the potential for development mid to late week.  This could be tied to disorganized convection in the Southern/SW Caribbean where surface pressures are slowly falling & there appears to be a weak tropical wave.  Forecast models are generally not showing significant development but depending on the exact track, some tropical moisture could push north up the Fl. Peninsula & eventually across the First Coast.
The GFS model is generally farther north showing a generally weak tropical system by late week over the Central/Northern Gulf that moves north/northeast not too far from Mobile.  The European model is decidedly farther south & west &, therefore, shows a weaker system that has to deal with a lot of land interaction in the from of the Yucatan Peninsula....only a short time over 
the Bay of Campeche....then into Mexico.  This track was mimicked by the GFS last week.  It would seem a weaker, more west system would be favored at this point given the lack of any organization at the moment.  An upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. late this week might play a role in eventual movement/intensity as well.

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central & SW Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.

Shear is strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 30 knots over the SW Atlantic....& 30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico....

Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa.  Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound.  Dry air is very evident on the IR satellite below - note the patchy (or scalloped) light gray colored clouds which are stratocumulus clouds - indicative of a stable air mass.  This pattern looks to hold until at least next week. Some long range models are showing hints of a more active E. Atlantic in a couple of weeks or so. 

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