Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Watching the Caribbean

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Updated: 10/29/2013 8:18 am
A huge area of convection has blossomed over the Central Atlantic & has dumping heavy rain on Bermuda.  This complex is associated with an upper level low & surface cold front.  There are indications of a weak surface low but tropical development seems unlikely at this point.

Several tropical waves are in -- or nearing -- the Caribbean.  Westerly shear has been tearing the waves apart & no imminent development is likely to occur.

The Gulf is void of much cloud cover let alone any tropical activity.

Tropical activity over the W. Pacific & is now leading to a buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. over the next week or two possibly -- & likely -- leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov.

Global tropical activity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast but became a hurricane again Sat. night.  Though a sharp turn to the north is expected, "Raymond" will weaken before having a chance at again getting close to land:

We're at the one year mark since "Sandy" made landfall on the New Jersey shore -- Oct. 29th. "Sandy" became a hurricane in the Caribbean Oct. 24th & went on to hit Jamaica as a Cat. 1 then SE Cuba as a Cat. 3 before slowly weakening as the storm turned north through the Bahamas. The storm reached Jacksonville's latitude about midday Oct. 27th but was hundreds of miles to the east. There were rip currents & a moderately strong onshore flow but no rain [from "Sandy" - despite dire forecasts from some media outlets] for the First Coast. It was just 2 days later when the extratropical storm slammed the mid Atlantic.

"Sandy" produced a historical storm surge on the coast of N.Y. & Jersey while generating heavy snow far inland.  The 72 U.S. deaths was the greatest death toll from a landfalling named storm -- outside of the Southern U.S. -- since "Agnes" in 1972.  Click ** here ** for a NASA summary... ** here ** for a NHC summary.

"Sandy" plowed into the mid Atlantic....an evening landfall on the New Jersey Coast inundating New Jersey & New York with a storm surge that's gone down in weather lore as of the fiercest of the modern era. Click ** here ** [go to the third option for a near surface time lapse of the wind speeds] for a unique time lapse of the storm courtesy NASA:

"Surface and near-surface (850 hPa) wind speeds from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) operational assimilation system (consisting of a 50-kilometer analysis coupled with a 25-kilometer model) beginning September 1, 2012 preceding a 7-kilometer global simulation with the GEOS-5 atmospheric model initialized at 09Z on October 26, 2012 reveal the massive size of Hurricane Sandy versus the other storms for this period, including the persistent Hurricane Nadine, as well as hurricanes Michael and Rafael. The 7-kilometer simulation depicts the strong onshore winds in New York and New Jersey even after landfall and the dramatic influence of the land surface slowing down Sandy's inland surface winds."
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