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Wave Emerges Off Africa

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Updated: 7/22/2013 9:14 am
A cluster of thunderstorms is a few hundred miles northeast of Fl. This is primarily associated with a surface trough of low pressure & weak upper level disturbance.  The area will have to be monitored for persistence but at this point little or no development appears likely.

The Gulf of Mexico & very quiet with few clouds -- beautiful!

The satellite images below shows a very large area of stable air & cool temps. aloft covering much of the Central Atlantic east of the Caribbean with a remarkable lack of any showers or storms let alone tropical waves from the Caribbean far to the east across the Atlantic.  The second image below -- water vapor satellite -- shows this stable area very nicely (black & rust-colored area). Such an atmosphere is generally unfavorable for tropical development.

Dry air & shear have been hammering away on most of the tropical waves moving west off of Africa.  There is, however, a stronger wave that's moved off the African coast.  Some long range forecast models try to develop this wave as it moves west across the Atlantic but the GFS model -- which was the strongest in past days -- has backed off quite a bit at least for the time being.  The wave would approximately be near the Caribbean or SW Atlantic by about the middle of next week.

Unusual for this time of year.....no active storms anywhere on the global map below(!).

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