Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Wave Enters SW Gulf

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Updated: 8/16/2013 12:22 pm
Tropical wave into the SW Gulf... "Erin" far E. Atlantic.....

Weak low pressure has moved across the Yucatan Peninsula & into the SW Gulf.  Thunderstorms have continue to wax & wane as the wave is already showing signs of having to battle the shear that's 20-30 knots across much of the Gulf.  Virtually all of the convection is east of the "center" & there are no true signs of any significant organization.

Forecast models are in pretty good agreement that the wave will only be represented by a surface trough as it moves northwest & north.  This would take the wave into Mexico & Texas this weekend increasing rain & storms, but that's about it.  Some weak surface development is still not out of the question.  Tropical moisture will continue to flow northward into the Gulf Coast region enhancing an already "juiced up" air mass.  Widespread heavy rain will fall from Texas east to Fl.

For the First Coast .... my forecast remains unchanged. (I understand that some local forecasters have targeted the First Coast {News} with a tropical storm this weekend [say what??!!]:

** tropical moisture is surging north leading to the potential for periods of heavy rain through Sat....& to a somewhat lesser degree Sunday but still some heavy rain all the way through the end of the weekend.
** this scenario has little to do with the tropical wave & much more to do with the surge of tropical moisture + a weak stationary front nearby (see surface weather chart below) + an upper level trough
** total rainfall since Wed. will exceed 6" in some places through Sun. & could reach a foot in some of the hardest hit areas(!).
** a few strong to severe storms will occur -- related to the upper trough & not so much the tropical wave.

"Spaghetti plots" (forecast models) courtesy the S. Fl. Water Management District:

Large areas of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remains over the Central Atlantic & has started to -- once again -- move into the Caribbean. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too. There has been moistening over the Eastern Atlantic & some forecast models are indicating tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic (besides "Erin") during the last 10 days or so of Aug.

Shear is strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30, even 40 knots over large parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 30 knots over the Central Atlantic....& 20+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico....

"Erin" is struggling over the far Eastern Atlantic.  Conditions will remain marginal -- dry air at first then a high shear zone -- the farther west "Erin" goes which should cause the cyclone to eventually weaken even more & likely dissipate.  At this point, it does not look like "Erin" can survive a Transatlantic trip nor will steer currents -- as it appears now -- allow such.

A large tropical wave is about to move off the coast of Africa.  Forecast models again show initial development but then the system is stymied courtesy the hostile conditions that remain entrenched over the Central & parts of the Eastern Atlantic.

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