Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Wave Moving into Central Atlantic

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Updated: 10/12/2013 12:40 pm
Non-tropical Low in the W. Atlantic... Wave Central Atlantic... Multiple Typhoons W. Pacific 

A non-tropical low remains east of the Carolina's. This low will sit & spin over the W. Atlantic & will slowly shift south then southeast bringing a return of onshore flow to the First Coast by late Sun./Mon. with a few coastal/near coast showers + cooler temps.

Meanwhile...a cluster of t'storms is just east of the Bahamas.  Some forecast models slowly develop this system as it moves north then northeast but stays east of Fl. 


The surface map below just catches the southern edge of the low in the W. Atlantic surface low is east of Va./N. Carolina.



A persistent tropical wave has moved into the Central Atlantic.  There is some potential for development, but the system should not be able to make a lot of progress west across the Atlantic as the wave gets steered north in the long term & encounters an increasingly hostile environment. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows several tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  

* One is "Phailin" & slammed ashore Sat. in India as a powerful Cat. 4 typhoon.

* A second -- "Nari" -- moved through the Northern Philippines as a Cat. 3 typhoon & will move into Vietnam by Mon. 

* Yet another typhoon -- "Wipha" -- will be farther to the east with a re-curvature just east of Japan in the long run. 

These developments -- along with an increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific --  could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).  Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin with the exception of the current wave in the Central Atlantic which should recurve.  Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch, but it's also getting late in the season.  Having said that....sea surface temps. are still plenty warm -- well into the 80s.

"Phailin":

"Nari":

"Whipa":

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