Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Wave in E. Atlantic

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Updated: 7/23/2013 9:41 am
Disorgnized thunderstorms continue over the NE Gulf/W. Atlantic.  This is primarily associated with a surface trough of low pressure & upper level trough.   Little or no development appears likely.

The Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean are very quiet with few clouds let alone t'storm activity -- beautiful!

The satellite images below shows a very large area of stable air & cool temps. aloft covering much of the Central Atlantic east of the Caribbean with a remarkable lack of any showers or storms let alone tropical waves from the Caribbean far to the east across the Atlantic.  The second image below -- water vapor satellite -- shows this stable area very nicely (black & rust-colored area). Such an atmosphere is generally unfavorable for tropical development.

Dry air & shear have been hammering away on most of the tropical waves moving west off of Africa.  There is, however, a stronger wave that's moved off the African coast.  Some long range forecast models try to develop this wave as it moves west across the Atlantic but the GFS model -- which was the strongest in past days -- has backed off quite a bit at least for the time being.  The wave would approximately be near the Caribbean or SW Atlantic in about a week's time but facing increasingly hostile environmental conditions.

Unusual for this time of year.....no active storms anywhere on the global map below(!). The 'I' marks the tropical wave in the E. Atlantic that's being monitored - "an area of invest".

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