Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Activity East of Lesser Antilles

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Updated: 11/10/2013 11:39 am
No areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin with a very autumn-like look to satellite photos (notice the gray colored patches over the Atlantic -- indicative of dry, stable air.

There is quite a bit of convection along the ITCZ east of the Caribbean but no surface development is apparent nor likely.

The global upper leve pattern remains one where an upper trough of low pressure is essentially a mainstay over the Western U.S.  There will be a brief exception this week when a sharp upper level trough dives into the Eastern U.S. dropping cold air deep to the south.  But this trough will be transient & lift out by next weekend.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  The time for slow tropical development in the Caribbean is running out but still possible. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.  Recent forecast trends show stronger high pressure gradually moving south & east deeper into the U.S.  If this pattern is realized, it could be tough to get much development even in the Caribbean.

Global tropical activity once super typhoon "Haiyan" over the W. Pacific that hammered the Central Philippines Thursday-Friday is skirting Vietnam as the storm  weakens.  Click ** here ** for news updates, video & photos from CNN.

Check out the incredible radar time lapse of the super typhoon as the storm plowed through the Philippines (courtesy Brian McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami).

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