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Remnants of "Gabrielle" Regenerate

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Updated: 9/10/2013 7:50 am
"Gabrielle" regenerates south of Bermuda... "Humberto" Intensifying in E. Atlantic... Wave in NW Caribbean... 

The remnants of "Gabrielle" have regenerated into a tropical storm & a tropical storm WARNING has been issued for Bermuda.  "Gabrielle" continues to produce a lot of convection but asymmetrical & -- in fact -- looks a bit subtropical in its satellite presentation.  Though over warm water, "Gabrielle" is still battling west to southwest shear that will only increase by late week.  After only slowly moving north & a bit northwest, "Gabrielle" should finally get absorbed by a trough of low pressure that will move into the NW Atlantic by the weekend accelerating the tropical cyclone north/northeast missing the U.S. well to the east but possibly brushing Newfoundland & nearby areas.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida outside of a slight uptick in easterly swells through Wed. that are already enhanced by onshore flow.  Beware of rip currents at area beaches....

"Humberto" appears to be on its way to our first Atlantic hurricane of the year.  The tropical cyclone will soon turn sharply northward remaining over the far E. Atlantic & nowhere close to the U.S.  There will be another jog to the west later this week but a full transit across the Atlantic is highly unlikely.  By late week, cooler sea surface temps + increasing shear should induce weakening.  However, most global forecast models maintain "Humberto" well into next week & some restrengthening will be possible if it survives the strong late week/weekend shear.  No impact on the First Coast or any of the U.S. as it stands right now.

A pretty active tropical wave is over the Northwest Caribbean.  The wave will soon interact with the Yucatan Peninsula so little or no development in the short term.  But the wave will then move into a favorable environment over the Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf of Mexico.  While the time over water will be somewhat limited, the potential for development over the far W. Gulf looks to be quite high by the weekend.  Coastal Mexico & S. Texas could be impacted by a fast organizing tropical system in 3-6 days.  

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.  This dry air could eventually cause "Humberto" to weaken in addition to increasing westerly shear courtesy the upper level low that visible at about 30 degrees N hundreds of miles northwest of "Humberto".

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico (but will weaken over the W. Gulf as the wave moves into that area)... 20-30 knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa with some potential for gradual development over the E. Atlantic.  

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas.  Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 25th.

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